Riding Trump's Merry-Go-Round
It’s difficult to know what Trump means. He’s a merry-go-round of contradictory statements who says one thing one day and something different the next.
GETTING TO ISTANBUL would have been no sweat on my part. I was already in the neighborhood in early June and could take an hour flight to witness the comings and goings for the latest round of “peace talks” between Ukraine and Russia.
Back in Washington, President Donald Trump had recently posted comments calling Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, “crazy” and requested that Putin “stop” bombing Ukraine. So, it seemed possible Trump might be pressuring Mad Vlad into serious ceasefire negotiations.
Thankfully, reason prevailed. Flying to Istanbul for peace talks would be a waste of time. Yes, a small prisoner exchange was agreed to during the hour-long meeting — good news for the prisoners and their families — but otherwise, it was just talk.
Putin Claims Ukraine “Is Ours”
The bottom line? Moscow has no interest in a ceasefire unless forced to do so by Ukraine, Europe and the United States.
Putin wants total capitulation from Ukraine in exchange for his unprovoked invasion of the neighboring sovereign nation — a get-of jail-free card for alleged war crimes, 20 percent of Ukraine territory and limited responsibility for the destruction Moscow has caused.
Putin reiterated that position last week at his economic forum in St. Petersburg, claiming Russians and Ukrainians are one people and “in that sense the whole of Ukraine is ours.”
And while Trump initiated the “peace talks” in March — which may result in a long-term ceasefire at best — it has become clear Trump’s fawning friendship with Putin overshadows his sporadic interest in brokering peace in Ukraine.
So, Putin’s bloody military rampage and bombing campaign of civilian targets continues. In fact, Putin has cranked up the meat-grinding battles and drone attacks following Trump’s November election win to the highest level of his invasion.
Pumped Up by Bombing Ukraine
Things may be changing. We’ve all seen how pumped up Trump and his team are over the U.S. bombing of Iran’s uranium enrichment sites.
The massive strike, Operation Midnight Hammer, demonstrated U.S. military prowess to the world and the sudden ceasefire between Israel and Iran tastes like victory to Trump World. It feels good to them. If the ceasefire holds, it could transport the president to a new, more decisive zone of action on the international front.
Even isolationist Vice President JD Vance seems to have softened his American First schtick and is now touting the bombing of Iran as an expression of the “Trump Doctrine.”
To summarize JD’s latest pronouncement: If diplomacy in America’s interest fails, then hit hard, hit fast and then get out. (It always helps if an ally like Israel does the dirty preparation work first.)
“When you can’t solve it diplomatically, you use overwhelming military power to solve it and then you get the hell out of there,” Vance explained to a Republican dinner in Lima, Ohio.
Drop a bunch of bunker buster bombs and Trump suddenly transforms into a strutting Captain America on his way to collecting a Nobel Peace Prize. No “forever wars,” just parades. The president seems to like that. People jump when the U.S. military flexes its muscle.
Maybe even Moscow will take notice.
And perhaps Trump is changing his tune on Ukraine. The president did strike some mildly encouraging notes at the NATO summit in the Netherlands this week. Instead of outlandishly blaming Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky for Russia’s invasion and flirting with World War III, as he did in the Oval Office in February, Trump reversed course.
“Vladimir Putin really has to end that war,” Trump told reporters during a press briefing following the NATO Summit.
Trump also claimed a willingness to provide Ukraine more defensive Patriot missiles to ward off incoming attacks, something Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky offered to buy in April.
Trump’s Merry-Go-Round of Contradictory Statements
I’ll believe it when I see it because it’s difficult to know what Trump means when he says it. He’s a merry-go-round of contradictory statements who says one thing one day and something different the next.
Trump whisperers and supporters say there is method to his madness — that he purposely creates fogbanks of ambiguity that command attention in suspenseful anticipation of his next move.
It’s the kind of suspense that makes a good TV reality show. It’s shakier ground for leadership and international alliances.
Meanwhile, I’m still waiting for his previous public mumblings to take shape.
We all know about the campaign boast that he would hammer out a peace deal in 24 hours. He made that claim at least 53 documented times. After the election, Trump admitted to “being a little bit sarcastic” about the pledge. Later he said it was in “jest.”
The only people laughing when he made those comments were possibly Trump and Putin. But many took him at his word. His boasts raised expectations in Ukraine and much of the world. He has not only failed to deliver, he has also recently sidelined the issue as a “low priority.”
“Stop this Ridiculous War!”
A case in point. Trump’s Truth Social post that Putin “STOP this ridiculous War! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE” two days after his inauguration in January.
That’s when the newly installed president laid out his ultimatum. “If we don’t make a ‘deal,’ and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries.”
Somehow, somewhere, Trump lost his resolve. Perhaps he became distracted with other wars of his own making: Ivy League schools, undocumented migrants, tariffs on some 185 nations around the world, defunding California. Hey, it’s Trump World. Go big or go home.
But he hasn’t gone big on pressuring Russia for a ceasefire or withdrawing from Ukraine even when strong congressional support exists to do so.
A Senate bill in the works outlines monstrous, “bone crushing” sanctions on Russian oil exports and enjoys a massive majority support of more than 80 co-sponsors. The objective is for the U.S. to slap 500 percent tariffs on any nation – largely China and India – buying cheap Russian oil. U.S. allies generally support the move for coordinating their own sanctions, but the Senate bill does need some significant tweaking.
The Trump administration opposes the bill overall and in detail and is pressuring the Senate to delay a floor vote and the president is now backing off any sanctions at all.
During a conversation with reporters at the G7 meeting in Canada less than two weeks ago, Trump backed away from his BIG sanctions threat made in January. “You're talking about billions and billions of dollars. Sanctions are not that easy. It's not just a one-way street.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio was relied on to fill out the details to Trump’s new-found sanctions objections.
“If we did what everybody here wants us to do, and that is come in and crush them with more sanctions, we probably lose our ability to talk to them about the ceasefire and then who’s talking to them?” Rubio said in an exclusive interview with POLITICO’s Dasha Burns on the sidelines of the NATO summit.
Which is exactly why I decided to nix going to Istanbul. I assumed it would be just talk. Nothing more. I was right.